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Hey Dave, first I want to thank you for taking your time answering.
My questions are:
(1)Lets say I took very good care of my engine, how long should it last before I scrap the engine?
(2)Are certain brands more reliable?
(3)What trend in automotive that you don’t like?
(4)What are your real thoughts on EVs?
1) If you do all of the required maintenance by the book (the owner’s manual!) you should expect a modern engine to last at least 250,000 miles.
2) Today, pretty much all of the major manufacturers build (roughly) equally durable cars and engines; but Toyota, Honda, and the German manufacturers have been doing it longer. The least reliable car company today is probably Land Rover and I would not buy one, even if I wanted and expensive overweight SUV.
3) I don’t like that cars are still getting heavier. Weight is the enemy of everything you want a car to do and lightweight cars generally are more fun to drive. I also don’t like that manual transmissions are getting harder to find in decent cars. My POV is that driving should be fun.
4) EV’s are coming and are infinitely more sensible than Hydrogen fuel cells for the environment. Fortunately, Hydrogen seems to be dying away in most parts of the world. EV’s are not currently as environmentally beneficial as most folks think. The reason is that we have to look at the Well-to-wheels CO2 impact and not just the “tank-to-wheels” POV. See this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1E8SQde5rk1. I have to say that im quite dissapointed with your projection of 250k miles. My guess was at least 400k(if maintained by the book) and then up from there. What is your reasoning and criteria for 250k?
2. I honestly thought that the Americans have been making cars longer than Toyota. Why do you say that Land Rover is the least reliable?
3. I agree with you on weight. And you were the one that taught me that. I project that economy gas cars will get lighter and lighter with the use of aluminum. Government is always pushing for better mpg and gas prices is going to keep climbing. Eventually aluminum light weight cars will be worth its weight in gold. However right now the trend lean towards heavy bulky suvs because the weight does feel more sturdy in the case of an accident.
4. Im working on preventing EVs from becoming mainstream. Manufacturer executives are under a spell right now and they need to be snapped out of it. I think we can both agree that EVs will put a very large strain on the economy because 1. they are not as reliable as ICE 2. The cost of infrastructure upgrade is enormous. 3. Cost of manufacturer tool upgrade is also enormous. It must be stopped at all cost.
Mr Roth, If you don’t mind me asking, are you still working for a manufacturer or are you retired?
1. I mean to say a minimum of 250k miles. Worst-case of all the automotive engines in production. 300 to 400K is quite attainable. 250 K is just an estimate of the the cases of well-maintained cars that I know of. Of course these examples are all more than a dozen years old now. Engine technology is and has been continually improving, so the average life of well-maintained engines has improved over the last dozen years. An example; about a dozen years ago GM and Subaru were still making engines with head gasket problems that would emerge about the time the warranty expired, but they seem to be well-past those problems. The other thing to remember is that it isn’t just miles that take the toll on an engine, it is also time. If you drive 40K miles per year, you can still expect more than a decade of life from your engine.
2. I didn’t mean that Toyota has been making engines longer than the American companies. I meant that Toyota has been making extremely durable trouble-free engines longer than most companies. There are a number of sources of reliability data on cars including JD Powers and Consumer Reports. Based on their data Land Rover has been near the bottom of the list for a very long time. I should point out that being at the bottom of reliability rankings today is pretty close to being at the top 15 years ago.
3. Crash standards and the public’s appetite for luxury and lots of options make it difficult to keep the weight down. By the way, weight generally helps in vehicle-to-vehicle crashes, but is actually a hindrance in vehicle to barrier crashes.
4. I am recently retired from a Tier-1 automotive supplier. I am now doing consulting as Roth Automotive Science, LLC. You may be interested in this POV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1E8SQde5rkHey Dave, I been meaning to get back to this post.
1. In your estimation of car longevity, what is your definition of a failed car at the estimated 250k mark?
2. You also said time takes a toll on cars. Can you elaborate on this a bit more?
1. By 250 K mile longevity, I mean that on a modern engine, maintained by the book, it should be running just fine at 250k miles and not burning more than a quart of oil per 1000 miles, and not leaking fluids. Many modern engines can do more than 300k miles. The other parts of the powertrain, like automatic transmissions do not seem to be as durable. A manual transmission will be very long-life, but the clutch will probably not last much more than 150 k miles. Transmissions need to have fluid changed at least by 100 k miles to get very long life.
You can always put a new engine or transmission in an old car, and you can completely rebuild a suspension; but a car isn’t really failed until the body/chassis is badly corroded2. The toll that time takes on a car is very dependent on whether of not it is garage-kept or not. An outside car will have faded paint, weathered or cracked dashboard and rubber seals/whether=stripping after 10 years. A garage-kept car will not. Constant exposure to the weather is tough on brake systems as well (due to corrosion). Even a garage-kept car will have some deterioration of the rubber parts due to Ozone in the atmosphere. In general, time takes its toll on all of the rubber seals, hoses, and belts throughout the car. A CV joint might be able to last 400 k miles of driving, but once the rubber boot cracks, the grease leaks out and dirt and water get in and the joint fails. Same deal with many of the suspension joints. The final big issue with time is the seasons. Winters with ice and salt are really tough on the body and chassis corrosion. The older the car, the more corrosion on all of the metal and fasteners. Many nuts and bolts can not be undone for service without breaking if they have gone through 10 winters.
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